Evaluating The Eastern Conference Playoff ‘’Closers”

The NBA playoffs are here and over the last two years, 28 playoff games have been decided by 5 points or less. Inevitably, games get closer. Games get more intense. Games or entire series can come down to a final possession with the clock winding down. Who takes the last shot? Which teams are best equipped to play in a late game situation?

This is the Eastern Conference edition of the best “closers” in the playoffs, the players you trust the most to make an end of game shot or the game-winning play.

*This is for Round 1 of the NBA playoffs which Joel Embiid may or may not be playing in. These rankings and analysis are assuming Embiid is NOT suiting up for the Sixers in Round 1.*

1. LeBron James — Cleveland Cavaliers

Round 1 Opponent: Indiana Pacers

No surprise here. “The King” takes the top spot in the East’s rankings and probably the entire NBA’s. Offensively, LeBron James is having arguably the best season in the NBA as well as the best of his stellar 15-year career. He set career highs in Rebounds/Game at 8.7 and Assists/Game at 9.2 while posting the 5th best scoring season of his career with 27.7 Points/Game. No Eastern Conference team has a 2014–2015 Andre Iguodala to throw at James defensively and his size is almost impossible to stop if he gets moving downhill. He can, and will, get buckets at will and there is no one stopping him.

2. Giannis Antetokounmpo — Milwaukee Bucks

Round 1 Opponent: Boston Celtics

Giannis is just 23 years old, in his 5th NBA season and terrorizes NBA teams offensively and defensively. He’s averaging 27/10/5 and follows it up with 1.5 SPG and 1.4 BPG. It’s surprising to see him in the top 5 of scoring leaders in 2017–2018 considering that he shoots a paltry 30.9% from 3 on 1.5 Attempts/Game, but that gets offset by his ability to get to the free-throw line. Giannis averages 8.7 Free Throw Attempts/Game and is 2nd in the NBA in total attempts.

The last person to post a similar scoring, rebounding, and shooting line was…Anthony Davis in 2016–2017. Beyond that though, you have to go back to Shaq in 2001–2002 and the list is littered with some of the best big men in NBA history.

What separates Giannis from those post playing centers and power forwards is his athleticism. His physical tools are only rivaled by LeBron’s and it’s their ability to use their physical gifts that makes them two of the best closers in the NBA. If you need proof of his ability to get to the rack at will, check out his highlights (actually, read the rest of the way and then go watch. Once you start down that rabbit hole it’s hard to get back out). Giannis makes crazy moves normal and is almost impossible to stop.

3. DeMar DeRozan/Kyle Lowry — Toronto Raptors

Round 1 Opponent: Washington Wizards

The Toronto Raptors had one of the least appreciated #1 seed, 59 win seasons in recent memory. Their “Bench Mob” is excellent; three of their top nine 5 man units in point differential don’t include either DeMar DeRozan or Kyle Lowry and two more include just DeMar DeRozan. The Raptors have done this through taking a lot of 3s (32.8/Game; 4th in the NBA) and making a lot of them (11.8/G; 5th) while limiting opponents to just 8.9 makes (1st) out of 24.9 attempts (2nd). That some San Antonio Spurs level of dedication to the system. Play your role, close out threes, and allow bad shooters to shoot away.

But role players and systems aren’t what you came here for. You came here for what happens when the system, offensively, breaks down. For the Raptors, they really have two options so I cheated and put down both DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. They do different things and excel at different types of shots, forming a combination that gives the Raptors two options in a late game situation, a mid-range shot or a three and two different guys; one for each shot.

DeRozan is a shooting guard that isn’t much of an outside shooter. Instead, his best spots are inside the three-point line. Seven of DeMar’s makes per game come inside the 3-point line and 2.7 of those come from mid-range, a figure that rates 3rd in the NBA behind LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Durant. DeRozan is smart enough to know his sweet spots and doesn’t force 3s just to shoot 3s. Instead, he that is teammate Kyle Lowry’s job.

Kyle Lowry is one of the best 3-point shooters in the NBA. His 3.1 3 PM/G is 5th in the NBA, his 7.0 3PA/G ranks 12th and his 40% hit rate is one of the best for those that shoot as much as he does. Lowry is the elder statesman on the Raptors and he’ll be the one they go if they need 3 points, a decision that should turn out favorably.

4. John Wall — Washington Wizards

Round 1 Opponent: Toronto Raptors

These next three or four spots is where ranking these guys gets really tough. John Wall and the Wizards get the nod over Ben Simmons and the Sixers, Victor Oladipo, and the Celtics in a late game situation. The Wiz get a boost from their top trio and how John Wall is well equipped to set them up for a good look at an end of the game basket.

Wall has missed 40 games this season to undergo surgery on his knee and his numbers have taken a dip from his career year in 2017. He’s down to just 19 PPG and 9.5 APG but has improved to career-best 35.8% from 3. On the flip side, his backcourt running mate, Bradley Beal, is scoring almost 23 PPG and shooting just about 38% from 3 point range. And the Wizards’ third wheel, Otto Porter Jr., is averaging a career-high 14.8 PPG in addition to upping his 3P % to a career-best 43.7%.

The Wizards present an interesting 3 headed monster late in games for teams to defend. John Wall is one of the fastest players in the NBA of the dribble and isn’t afraid of anyone inside the paint, Bradley Beal has no hesitation from 3, and Otto Porter is always ready for the ball. In a late-game situation, the Wizards are going to give John Wall the ball and let him make the best decision he can. It’s the depth of options that he has that give the Wizards a top 4 nod, even with their recent struggles.

5. Ben Simmons — Philadelphia 76ers

*This is assuming the 76ers are without Joel Embiid for Round 1, otherwise they’d slot in at 4 considering all the matchup mismatches he presents*

Round 1 Opponent: Miami Heat

Whether or not you believe that Ben Simmons is a rookie, you have to admit that his first official NBA season has been nothing short of spectacular. However, Simmons may not be the Sixers’ best candidate for a late shot considering he A) Doesn’t shoot from beyond the arc or even consistently make shots beyond 5 ft, and B) Some people think he shoots with the wrong hand (which is something I absolutely do not understand, either way).

All jump shot (and free throw) concerns aside, Simmons is one the best in the NBA in getting to the basket and making shots inside 5 ft even when his defender is significantly playing off to cut off driving lanes. That results in a ton of shots that get taken with a defender in his face, but Simmons makes shots with a defender within 2 ft at a 54.3% clip. His overall shooting percentage? 54.5%. His 164 attempts and 89 makes rank 13th and 18th in the NBA. Simmons also ranks 7th in the NBA in both shots made and attempted with a defender within 2–4 ft, what NBA.com qualifies as “Tight” defense. Simmons is nearly unstoppable when he gets a full head of steam, much like his mentor LeBron and like LeBron, scoring isn’t all Simmons does.

With 7 assists to close out the season against the Magic, Ben Simmons recorded his 661st assist of the season, a figure ranking him 3rd all-time among rookies, behind Mark Jackson and Oscar Robertson. He is already one of the top 6 or so passers in the NBA and he’s perfectly surrounded by knockdown shooters in JJ Redick, Marco Belinelli, Robert Covington, and Dario Saric. I, and Philly fans should feel very confident that Simmons will find a wide-open shooter if he doesn’t have an opening to score and that confidence is why a rookie lands the 76ers at #5 in the East’s closers.

6. Victor Oladipo — Indiana Pacers

Round 1 Opponent: Cleveland Cavaliers

The Pacers, and by extension Victor Oladipo, had the quietest 48 win, All-Star season ever. While no one has been watching (ok, almost no one), Oladipo is setting new career highs in almost every single basketball category. He’s posting a 23/5/4 line while upping his 3P % to 37% and he gets to the charity stripe 5 times a game, making 4 of those free shots. Such a drastic improvement in efficiency is almost unprecedented when combined with such an increase in volume and usage rate (21.4% up to 30.1%).

In the last last 5 minutes of a game within 5 points, the 25-year-old has been phenomenal. Oladipo ranks 10th in the NBA with 0.4 3 PM in these situations and 12th in points at 3.5, just behind the trio of Steph, KD, and Westbrook. That’s special company for the young shooting guard. Oladipo’s evolution on the Pacers has been fun to watch and he’s now the unquestioned star of a top 5 team in the East.

7. Jayson Tatum — Boston Celtics

Round 1 Opponent: Milwaukee Bucks

A healthy Kyrie Irving would rank the Celtics #2 on this list behind former teammate LeBron James. Kyrie Irving play style is “controlled chaos” and the young guard is a magician when it comes to using the backboard for crazy layups. And of course, who could forget Game 7 against the Warriors?

Alas, Kyrie is out for the playoffs after undergoing surgery on his left knee and we are robbed of watching one of the best shot creators in the NBA. So who picks up the slack for the Celtics?

Their best player is probably Al Horford, but he’s not really a shot creator. Marcus Smart should be back relatively soon, but he’s not a great shooter. Marcus Morris? Just no. Terry Rozier? Not really. Jaylen Brown is maybe a year or two away. All that leaves Jayson Tatum, the 2nd rookie on this list.

Since Irving was shut down, Tatum leads the Celtics with 2.1 FGA in the last 4 seconds of the shot clock, shots he’s making 40.7% of the time. He drains 2s in that time at a 44.4% clip and threes (0.7 3PA/G) at a 33.3% rate, respectable given the difficult nature of late shot clock threes. In addition, Tatum boasts a polished post game, solid handles, and knows where his spots on the floor are. For the Celtics’ playoff hopes that will have to be enough to sustain them.

8. The Miami Vice Uniforms (Jk, Goran Dragic) — Miami Heat

Round 1 Opponent: Philadelphia 76ers

For many years Dwayne Wade was an automatic selection for this spot. Then he bounced around in Chicago and Cleveland and somewhere in between got kinda old. Now the torch has been passed to the new Heat team right? The group of Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson, Tyler Johnson, and Hassan Whiteside right?

Haha, wrong! Well, kinda. Wade leads the 2018 Heat in late field goal shots (1.4/Game) since Dion Waiters was shut down, except he hasn’t been very good on those shots. He’s making 27.6% of those shots and only 14.3% of those from downtown. Those numbers are, uhhh, not great.

Instead, the Heat should, and likely will, approach a late-game situation with the goal of finding an open man for the best shot possible. They’ve got a Wayne Ellington who makes 3s at a 39.2% clip, or guys like Goran Dragic or Josh Richardson if they need to put the ball on the floor. Either way, Miami is the least prepared of all the Eastern Conference teams for a late-game shot.