Houston Rockets Trade Deadline: Who’s Up?
Finding the missing piece to beat Golden State
In the 2017–2018 playoffs, it took everything the Houston Rockets had to push the Golden State Warriors to a Game 7 in the Western Conference Finals. This year, challenging the Warriors to that level is going to something more, a piece that the Rockets don’t have yet, a player from the New Orleans Pelicans.
Heading into the 2019 Trade Deadline, the Houston Rockets are 31–22 and in fifth place in the Western Conference. The Rockets are 2.5 games back of the 3rd seed and are far below their preseason expectations.
Last year’s Western Conference Finalists and defending #1 seed were expected to be right back in the thick of things in 2018–2019. However, injuries to Eric Gordon, Clint Capela, and Chris Paul combined with a horrendous 11–14 start threw the Rockets into an early-season hole. Since then, starting with a December 11th game against the Portland Trail Blazers, the Rockets have gone 20–8. Of course, James Harden has been the catalyst for every one of those wins.
But that’s not the point of this article. Harden has easily been the best offensive player in the NBA this season (arguably the last 2 seasons as well) and articles about his scoring or foul-drawing abilities or even his post-defense abound.
This article is about finding the Rockets another star at the Trade Deadline. Because, when the playoffs come, the Rockets, as currently constructed, aren’t beating the Golden State Warriors in a seven-game series. That’s their one stated goal; they want nothing else. Because, if you make it through the Warriors, no one else stands in the way of a title.
In 2017–2018, the Rockets should have beaten the Warriors. Up 3–2 with home court advantage in Game 7, plus double-digit halftime leads in Game 6 or 7, the Rockets should have advanced and won their third NBA title. Alas, Chris Paul’s hamstring injury and a historically bad shooting performance in Game 7 doomed the Rockets to an early exit.
Therein lies the problem. Chris Paul is getting older; he’s only 33 years old, 34 in May, and that means an increased likelihood of injuries. Combine that with a recent history of hamstring injuries and I wonder how much longer he can perform at an All-Star level while playing 30+ minutes per game.
Harden is the Rockets only reliable shot creator when Paul is off the court. Eric Gordon or Austin Rivers can create in a pinch, but they are both sporadic shooters.
To beat Golden State, the Rockets don’t have enough firepower. Or enough defenders. As we saw last year, PJ Tucker can’t guard Kevin Durant; Trevor Ariza and his length are no longer on the Rockets’ roster to provide a small distraction to KD.
The solution? Add another superstar. We know the Rockets made an offer for Jimmy Butler but the timing and money didn’t work out at the time. Butler still could be an addition for the Rockets in the next day or two, but it’d require a three-team trade and the Sixers receiving another championship-level piece in return. Part of Butler’s appeal is his strong defense, plus he’s a decent three-point shooter and can play in a high volume iso-heavy offense.
But a Butler trade from Philadelphia is unlikely. There’s another team that I think could be more easily convinced to give up one of their stars. The New Orleans Pelicans are 13th in the West and 6.5 games back of the 8th seed. Anthony Davis has requested a trade. The Pelicans are in dire straits.
However, I’m not convinced that Davis will be the move for the Rockets should they make a deal with New Orleans. I would love to see that Harden, Davis, Paul combo in action, but it’d require trading Clint Capela, who is on a very good, team-friendly contract, as well as the four picks the Rockets offered for Jimmy Butler with limited protections. Now, if Davis was committed to signing an extension, I’d tell the Rockets to go for it.
The Player
But I’m really interested in Jrue Holiday and how he could help the Rockets and transform them into a defensive and offensive monster to take on the Warriors. Holiday is a First Team All-Defense player and can and will defend anyone from Russell Westbrook to Kevin Durant. On a basic level, Jrue pours in 1.6 steals and 0.8 blocks per game. His presence on the Rockets would let James Harden roam in the post and hunt steals and would complement the perimeter defensive play of PJ Tucker and Chris Paul, as well as Clint Capela’s rim-protecting.
Adding Holiday’s defense would make the Rockets a nightmare for the Warriors. CP3 is a difficult matchup for Steph Curry. PJ Tucker can help defend Klay. Holiday could harass Durant. James Harden could continue to defend Draymond Green in the post and Clint Capela would matchup with DeMarcus Cousins. Imaging such a defensive lineup starts to make me cautiously optimistic. It’s a much better defensive group than last year’s Rockets’ playoff roster.
Offensively, Holiday wouldn’t be the best fit. As a raw three-point shooter, Holiday is a 32.2% shooter, which is not great. However, a deeper dive into his shooting numbers revealed some good signs that would mesh well with the Rockets’ style.
Jrue Holiday’s best 3-point shot is early in the shot clock, with between 18–22 seconds left. Those shots are ones that the Rockets are not opposed too; Houston ranks 10th in the league with 5.9 3PA very early in the shot clock. That’s a lower number for the Rockets than I expected, but with a little tinkering, I determined that the reason is that, since December 11th, James Harden has been dominating the ball. Harden’s style is to slowly march up the court and then probe for an opening. From the opening of the season through December 10th, the Rockets ranked 5th in the league in 3s taken very early. That number is more the speed I was expecting (and it checks out with the 2017–2018 pace, 7.7 3PA between 18–22 seconds, most in the NBA).
Beyond that, the Rockets rank 7th in the NBA in wide-open threes attempted/game with 18.3. The Venn diagram of wide-open threes, 0 dribble threes, and catch-and-shoot threes is almost a perfect circle, as evidenced by the nearly identical shooting percentages.
Holiday would improve his shooting just by virtue of receiving passes from Chris Paul and James Harden, two of the best passers in the league, but he’s an excellent point guard in his own right. Holiday is averaging a career-high 8 assists per game (in addition to a career-high in points, 21.0/game). The presence of Holiday would help alleviate Harden’s minutes a little and would help facilitate a move towards fewer minutes per game for CP3. Holiday would still get chances to run the offense, likely the second team players when Harden sits, but he’d see his share of action with Houston’s other two guards. Such a trio would ensure that the Rockets had at least one, usually two, premier, All-Star playmakers on the floor at all times, a luxury few teams enjoy in the NBA. Holiday would add just another man who can get a shot at will, a closer if you will, making the Rockets even more difficult to matchup up with late in games.
Making The Trade
Part of Holiday’s appeal to me, and hopefully the Rockets, is his contract. He is owed about $26 million in 2019–2020 and 2020–2021 with a player option for the same $26 million in 2021–2022.
Now for the difficult part, actually putting together a package for Holiday. Monetarily, there’s really only one combination of players that works for both the Rockets and Pelicans in a two-team trade. Jrue Holiday for Brandon Knight, Nene, and Marquese Chris. Otherwise, Holiday for Knight and Gordon would work.
Brandon Knight’s contract has a year and a half left, expiring after the 2019–2020 season. But he’s only 27 and posted 19.6 points and 5.1 assists per game for Phoenix in 52 games. Granted it was a 23–59 Suns team, but hey. Knight is owed $15,643,750 in 2019–2020 and, if Jrue and Davis, are not on the Pelicans payroll, that’s not a lot to swallow.
Marquese Chriss is an expiring contract. Nene is only owed $3,825,360 in 2019–2020. And Eric Gordon expires after 2019–2020, a season in which he is owed $14,057,730, which all things considered, isn’t bad at all for the Pelicans.
Assuming he picked up that option, the Rockets would have James Harden (32 years old), Chris Paul (36, probably on the bench or low minutes), Clint Capela (27), and Jrue Holiday (31) locked in through 2021–2022. A potential Holiday trade would extend the life of the Rockets title competitive window by 2 or 3 years. That’s a long time. By then the Warriors will be growing old or splitting apart, LeBron will be fading, and who knows what else will be happening.
I’m considering that when talking about adding Holiday. Acting as the Rockets, I’d start with a base deal of Knight, Nene, and Chriss plus 3 first round picks with little to no protections. That’s one expiring contract, and two relatively cheap and, in Knight’s case, a potentially interesting asset at point guard.
As for the picks, they ones the Rockets would trade would likely be 2019, 2021, and 2023. Making those first two unprotected and the third maybe top 10 or lottery protected would be fair. The Rockets, in this scenario, look to be good in 2019 and 2021, making those picks worth less than the 2023 pick. But protections on the 2023 pick shouldn’t be a hang-up. If making that pick unprotected is the difference between Jrue Holiday and no Jrue Holiday, make that pick unprotected. The deal closer could be the last pick the Rockets can include, their 2025 first rounder. If that pick was offered unprotected, alongside 3 other unprotected picks, and Knight, Nene, and Chriss’s expiring contract, I believe the Pelicans would think long and hard about that trade.
As for the second deal, trading Jrue for Gordon and Knight, I’d prefer if I were the Rockets to only include three picks, likely all unprotected. Gordon is a very key piece to the Rockets and, while Holiday’s presence would render him redundant, I’d like to keep him around. Plus, he doesn’t hold much value for New Orleans. He’s an aging, not quite a star, and somewhat expensive. They are looking to rebuild for the post-Davis era and getting cheap, young players and contracts like Nene and Chriss would seem to be more to their liking.
My preferred deal to the New Orleans Pelicans: Jrue Holiday for Brandon Knight, Nene, Marquese Chriss, and the Rockets’ 2019, 2021, and 2023 first-round picks unprotected, and their 2025 pick lottery protected.
The Rockets desperately want to catch and beat the Warriors and they will need to make a very risky move to do it soon. I think Jrue Holiday could very well be the last missing piece to turn the Rockets into a three-headed monster offensively and one of the best teams in the NBA defensively.
**All stats listed came from NBA.com**
**Article was written and published the evening of February 5th**
