Las Vegas Aces Face Phoenix Mercury Searching For a Crucial Win
As the playoff picture takes focus, Vegas is on the outside looking in
In their first season in Las Vegas, the Las Vegas Aces (10–13) are in ninth place in the WNBA standings and fighting for a playoff spot. And with the Atlanta Dream currently on a 5-game winning streak that has propelled them to fifth in the WNBA, every game counts for the Aces, who are 2 games out of eighth place. On Thursday, July 19th, the Aces will play the 2nd-place Phoenix Mercury (15–8) in Phoenix.
The Mercury, led by their trio of All-Stars, Brittney Griner, Diana Taurasi, and DeWanna Bonner, won the first two games of the series, 72–66 on June 10th, and 92–80 on June 17th. Both those games came early in the season, before the Aces found their footing; since that second loss to Phoenix on June 17th, the Aces have gone 9–6, beating teams like the Seattle Storm (1st in the WNBA), Los Angeles Sparks (3rd), and Minnesota Lynx (Defending WNBA champs).
Whereas the Mercury are led by veteran players with years of playing experience, Vegas’ best player is rookie C, A’ja Wilson. Together, with Kayla McBride, a 5-year vet, Wilson has formed a dynamic All-Star duo.
Despite her rookie label, Wilson has asserted herself as a dark horse MVP candidate and an All-Star in her first season, averaging 19.9 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.7 blocks per game. Kayla McBride is a second-time All-Star, providing a needed secondary scorer to Wilson. Her 19.1 points per game rank 7th in WNBA, coming on the back of 1.6 3 PM/G at a 40.7% clip, seventh in WNBA.
The clash between these two Western Conference teams features teams with strengths where the other has weaknesses and vice versa, making this matchup extremely intriguing tactically.
Diana Taurasi leads the entire WNBA in 3PM, 79, and 3PA, 194, shooting 40.7% from downtown. Her teammate and fellow All-Star, DeWanna Bonner, ranks tenth in the WNBA in 3s made with 34 and eighth in 3s attempted with 110. The two have combined to make 113 of the Mercury’s league-leading 187 made 3-pointers (or 60%) and 304 of their (also league-leading) 516 3s attempted (58.9%). Another teammate, Briann January, ranks second in the WNBA in 3P %, shooting a fabulous 47.3%. As a team, the Mercury is shooting 36.2% on 3s, also a WNBA leading figure.
Compare that to the Aces: 82 made 3s on 233 attempts (35.2%). Basically, Diana Taurasi has a very good shot at making more threes on Thursday then the entire Vegas squad combined.
Three-point shooting is the Mercury’s biggest strength offensively and, unfortunately for Vegas, it’s their biggest weakness on defense. The Aces have given up 180 made threes on 524 attempts, both of which rank first in the WNBA. With Taurasi and Bonner as not only phenomenal shooters, but elite passers, the Mercury present an interesting matchup conundrum for Vegas, and that’s without getting to Brittney Griner, the biggest matchup problem in the WNBA.
At 6’ 9”, Griner leads the WNBA in shots made, 182, and blocks with 67, as well as ranking second in points, sixth in rebounds with 169, sixth in FG %, shooting 54.6%. Given Griner’s shot-blocking ability, the Mercury rank first overall in blocks and 2P % against, 44.8%, and give up just 80.7 points per game, 5th-best in the WNBA.
The strength of the Mercury’s inside defense is bad news for the Aces; Vegas is more reliant on 2-pointers than any other team in the WNBA with 85.4% of their shot attempts being 2s. Therefore, Vegas has made the most twos in the WNBA, 614, but also taken the most, 1359, by a huge margin of 167 attempts.
Despite their main offensive plan seemingly stymied by Phoenix, there is one other way for Vegas to score. Vegas’ 426 made FTs and 555 FTs attempted both rank second, and, if there is one place the Mercury is weak, it is in fouling the other team. Griner ranks 5th in fouls/game (3.2) and Taurasi is tenth (3.0). As a team, the Mercury ranks 4th in fouls, with 433.
A’ja Wilson, with 5.8 FTM and 7.5 FTA per game, leads the WNBA in free throws made (134) and attempted (173). Kayla McBride ranks twelfth in the WNBA, making 4 of her 4.5 attempts per game (90.4%).
For Vegas to win, they’ll have to get Wilson on a roll early, but she and McBride need more help. Tamera Young is the only other Ace averaging 10+ points per game (10.9), but Kelsey Plum (7.6 points and 3.6 assists) could provide a much-needed scoring boost. Plum is the Aces’ best 3P shooter, making 1.3 of 2.8 attempts per game (45.8%, good enough for 3rd in the WNBA). The Aces’ game plan is A’ja Wilson and Kayla McBride dependent, but, in a game against one of the WNBA’s best, Young, Plum, and others will be called upon as Vegas looks for a crucial 11th win.
